Hurricane Irma status at 12:00 noon

This is the Historic City News Hurricane Irma status update for Friday afternoon.  The St Johns County Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1 – Full Activation at this time, according to reports received by Historic City News at 12:00 noon on Friday September 8, 2017.

Emergency Management Director Linda Stoughton reports that Hurricane Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed.

A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday.  On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

IMPORTANT – Track errors in this time period are about 125 miles and intensity errors during this period are also large.  Do not concentrate on any one model run or forecast at this point.

Potential Local Impacts:

• Hurricane Irma poses a threat to Northeast Florida
• Tropical storm force winds could begin to impact southern portions of the area on Sunday.
• Regardless of Irma’s ultimate track, large destructive wave action and above normal astronomical tides may result in further damage to coastal infrastructure if the worst impacts occur near the time of high tide.
• Hurricane conditions may pose a direct threat to North Florida in the next 72 hours. Any variation in track could have major implications for local impacts.
• St. Johns County is within the NHC 3 Day Cone of Uncertainty.
• No Watches or Warnings have been issued for St. Johns County.
• Evacuations of Evacuations Zones A and B will begin September 9, 2017 at 6 am.
• No shelters are open. Shelter Operations will begin Saturday, September 9, 2017.
• Republic Services and Advanced Disposal have suspended all household waste and recycling collection services in St. Johns County for Monday, September 11 and Tuesday, September 12 in preparation for Hurricane Irma. In addition, yard debris collection services will be suspended Monday, September 11 through Friday, September 15.

Weather Conditions:

Today – A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 9am. High near 81. Windy, with a northeast wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday Night – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 76. Very windy, with a northeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

The next Situation Report will be issued at 6:00 p.m. today.