Historic City News reported today at 12:00 p.m. (noon) that the St John County Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1; resulting in full-time 24-hour operations in response to Hurricane Dorian, according to Kelly Wilson, spokesperson for St. Johns County Emergency Management.
Historic City News’ Storm Chaser Logan Parham is closely monitoring the progress of Hurricane Dorian through the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.
The current event status, Wilson reported, is
Dorian is moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.
Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 155 mph with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
St. Johns County is experiencing the following conditions:
Hurricane Watch – A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within our area. A watch is issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds.
Storm Surge Watch – A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Coastal Flood Warning – Inland waterways of inland northeast Florida including the St Johns River and tributaries. Increasing up to 2 to 4 feet above ground Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate tidal flooding is now expected due to increasing onshore flow…with possible major tidal flooding Tuesday-Wednesday due to Major Hurricane Dorian.
High Surf Advisory – Very dangerous rip currents are expected early this week ahead of the approach of Major Hurricane Dorian. Surf is expected to increase 7-10 feet today and 10-20 feet Tuesday through Wednesday. Minor to possible Moderate beach erosion can be expected during high tide in association with the building surf today and tonight with moderate to major beach erosion expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
Potential Local Impacts:
• Even if the storm tracks well offshore, there will be some substantial impacts to the coastline:
• Storm surge along the coast, with flooding possible along the St. Johns River.
• Strong winds, potentially to hurricane force, along the coastline, with tropical storm force winds to the I-95 corridor.
• Dangerous surf, with waves 7-10 feet today, 10-20 ft Tuesday-Wednesday.
• Heaviest rainfall, and tornado threat, likely along the coast and offshore.
• A strong Nor’easter has developed which will bring gusty winds with heavy rainfall ahead of Hurricane Dorian.
A slight chance of showers before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Northeast wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 86. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible