Logan Parham, Storm Chaser
Historic City News
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on Saturday, June 1st, and won’t officially end until November 30th. This time of year contains the most storm activity and historically the most violent storms on the planet. Hurricane season typically comes to a peak around September 10th.
Sea surface temperatures are well above normal across the entire basin this year. In 2023, Hurricane Idalia taught us that we can still get major hurricanes in negative shear environments when positive warm water interaction is present. This year, a rapid onset La Niña should keep shear at bay.
“As I type this, there are no active storms nor areas to keep an eye on. We can still get storms as early as June and as late as November,” according to Parham. “All the weather agencies have issued the highest and most dire hurricane predictions to ever be issued. Will these predictions come true? We simply don’t know. But all indicators for an active to hyperactive season are present.”
The prediction numbers do not necessarily translate to death and destruction. Take 2010 for example, a very active year for hurricanes. 2010 had the most named hurricanes in the past ten years except 2005 and 2020. I would still guess that you can’t name a memorable hurricane from 2010, because despite the high number of hurricanes, we didn’t have a single major mainland impact in the United States.
Although 2022 was an average to below average year for number of hurricanes, the one major landfall that year was Hurricane Ian. Well over 100 deaths were recorded. The 2022 hurricane season still stands as the 3rd costliest hurricane season of all time.
What matters is landfall. You can have 100 hurricanes, but if none make landfall, early season predictions end up sounding blown out of proportion. Hurricane Ian is the reason the National Hurricane Center will be using new graphics this season. So many people got caught up in the center forecast point (Tampa) that they overlooked areas within the “cone of uncertainty”. In doing so, they ultimately suffered being hit by the worst part of the storm.
Evacuation is a precautionary measure that may make the difference between life, and death. If evacuations are called for in our area, they should be taken seriously and complied with. Hurricane forecasting is not a perfect science. It is much better to play it safe, than sorry. On the flip side, since all hurricanes are different, understand that hurricanes can have far reaching impacts, well outside of the core.
Take Hurricane Irma for example. Irma made landfall in The Keys and Marco Island. Very far from northeast Florida. Yet our part of the state experienced severe winds and some of the worst flooding that we’ve ever seen. The saying, “Every hurricane is a different beast,” could not be more true.
- This season. I want to see education turn into action. I want everyone who follows me to be well informed, prepared, and ready for anything that is thrown our way. Get those hurricane supplies ready. Know your evacuation zone, know your evacuation plan. Have a family emergency plan (kids, animals, elders). Protect your property. Protect yourselves. Remember that it is much better to be safe, than sorry.
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